Kelvin Lam is a widely recognised financial analyst who has recently been mentioned in the media including the Financial Times and BBC World Service. He was invited as a guest speaker during a lecture held by Professor Andreas Höfer of the Bundesbank University. Together with a group of 50 students, the financial analyst examined and discussed the latest and current economic developments in Asia, particularly in China. 

During the talk he placed emphasis on global trade including the “war on tariffs” provoked by the US and the political situation in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Specifically, Kelvin Lam explained the changes of China’s real GDP growth in the previous quarters by taking the industrial output, investments, and retail sales into account. Given potential trade barriers induced by the US government, simulations suggest that a 30 % tariff would cut China’s GDP by 0.7 % in 2025. In this context he also elaborated on additional fiscal stimulus to boost the economy.

From a monetary policy perspective, data from the consumer price index (CPI) suggest that China still faces deflationary pressure. Hence, Kelvin Lam stated that monetary policy is expected to stay “moderately loose” during the next quarters. Professor Höfer and the students were impressed by analytical depth of Kelvin Lam’s considerations.